Tracking My Predictions

There is very little incentive to track your own predictions in Fantasy Football. It’s entertainment first and foremost, and looking back and seeing that you were wrong is the opposite of fun. Moreover, there is no real downside to being wrong - most people don’t care enough to track an analyst’s failures and then hold it against them. And analysts seldom hold other analysts accountable since that would mean opening themselves up to the same scrutiny.

Still, you can’t measure what you don’t track, and what you don’t measure you can’t improve. So here are my 2016 FF predictions. Note that BUY simply means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will outperform his ADP, and a SELL means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will underperform his ADP.

 
10
Kudos
 
10
Kudos

Now read this

Introducing SPORK

tl;dr Here are the coefficients to calculate SPORK, a close approximation of pSPARQ (r2 .959), which itself is an approximation of SPARQ. It’s turtles all the way down. (Intercept) 181.924227 HT -4.592111 WT 0.361056 X40 -15.159259 X10... Continue →