Tracking My Predictions

There is very little incentive to track your own predictions in Fantasy Football. It’s entertainment first and foremost, and looking back and seeing that you were wrong is the opposite of fun. Moreover, there is no real downside to being wrong - most people don’t care enough to track an analyst’s failures and then hold it against them. And analysts seldom hold other analysts accountable since that would mean opening themselves up to the same scrutiny.

Still, you can’t measure what you don’t track, and what you don’t measure you can’t improve. So here are my 2016 FF predictions. Note that BUY simply means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will outperform his ADP, and a SELL means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will underperform his ADP.

 
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Now read this

Why Expected Points and EPA are kind of broken

tl;dr EPA is difficult to calculate, hard to explain, is inherently noisy, and isn’t more stable than metrics like fantasy points that are far easier to understand and calculate. Why EPA should be awesome When it was introduced by Brian... Continue →