Tracking My Predictions

There is very little incentive to track your own predictions in Fantasy Football. It’s entertainment first and foremost, and looking back and seeing that you were wrong is the opposite of fun. Moreover, there is no real downside to being wrong - most people don’t care enough to track an analyst’s failures and then hold it against them. And analysts seldom hold other analysts accountable since that would mean opening themselves up to the same scrutiny.

Still, you can’t measure what you don’t track, and what you don’t measure you can’t improve. So here are my 2016 FF predictions. Note that BUY simply means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will outperform his ADP, and a SELL means I see a >= 75% chance that a player will underperform his ADP.

 
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Now read this

Projecting Running Backs using Age Adjusted Correlation Curves and Historical Comps

tl;dr Fantasy players who draft based on efficiency will be consistent league losers. A player’s per game production in year Y correlates to Y+1 production to varying degrees depending on the player’s age. During a player’s prime years,... Continue →