Why Expected Points and EPA are kind of broken
tl;dr EPA is difficult to calculate, hard to explain, is inherently noisy, and isn’t more stable than metrics like fantasy points that are far easier to understand and calculate.
Why EPA should be awesome
When it was introduced by Brian Burke by way of Virgil Green, EPA (Expected Points Added) promised to be a breakthrough in NFL player evaluation. EPA accounts for down, distance remaining to gain a first down, and field position. It also accounts for garbage time. Therefore we might expect EPA to better measure true skill in NFL players. This is exciting. Metrics with this type of potential are pretty rare.
How to calculate EPA (it’s hard)
EPA is calculated by taking the expected point value of every down, distance and field position (“game state”) combination before a play is run, and subtracting it from the expected point value of the new game state after a play is run...
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